04 October

7 - 11 October

01 October

Economic analysis subscription

Mortgage approvals fell by 2.3% YoY in the 3 mths to July. 12 mth running total rises to 42.1k. Consumer prices rose by just 0.1% in Aug, meaning CPI inflation fell to 1.7%, its lowest level since June 2021. Overall, the unemployment rate has remained quite low so far this year. Total tax take up 12.6% YTD in Aug. Voted expenditure rose by 13.7% YTD, owing to increases in current and capital spending. 

The August meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the central bank lower the Bank rate by 25bps to 5.00%. This was the first rate change from the Bank of England in eight meetings. Subsequent to this, the central bank had been on a rate tightening cycle over the period December’21 to August’23. Market expectations had leaned towards a rate cut in the lead up to today’s announcement. 

The September meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) saw the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced by 50bps to 4.75-5.00%. It marks the first rate change from the Fed in nine meetings. 

The ECB cut interest rates for a second time this year at the September policy setting meeting of its Governing Council. The Deposit rate was lowered to 3.50%. Meanwhile, the refi rate was cut to 3.65%, which entailed a previously announced technical adjustment of a reduction in the spread between the Depo and Refi rates from 50bps to 15bps.

Ireland’s key trading partners continue to grow at a steady, if unspectacular pace. The US economy has outperformed the UK and Eurozone of late, but European economies are showing signs of accelerating growth in 2024.

World economy continues to exhibit resilience. However, subdued growth evident again in 2024, with US outperformance starting to wane, UK accelerating, and Eurozone flagging.  Core inflation remains sticky in some markets, particularly the UK, with consumer spending underpinning high core inflation, however, headline inflation is now close to target in all markets.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices...

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2023....