Economic Analysis

21 February

17 - 21 February

21 February

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World economy continues to exhibit uneven growth. US remains an outperformer, with signs of weakening growth in the Eurozone. Core inflation remains sticky in most markets, particularly the UK, with risks still tilted to the upside for inflation. Central banks will continue on a cautious downward trajectory in 2025 given current uncertainties.

The first policy setting meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for 2025 saw the central bank cut the Bank rate by 25bps to 4.50%. This means that the central bank has now cut by a total of 75bps in its current easing cycle, which began in August of last year. Today’s rate reduction was in line with market expectations.

The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in Dec, indicating a slightly sharper pace of contraction in the sector. The services PMI edged down to 57.1 in Dec, consistent with a slower, albeit still strong pace of expansion. The construction PMI printed above 50 in Dec, rising to its highest level since April. Mortgage approvals rose by 6.5% YoY in the 3mths to Nov. 

The first ECB Governing Council policy setting meeting of 2025 saw the central bank cut interest rates. It reduced them by 25bps, with the Deposit rate lowered to 2.75%, while the Re-fi rate was decreased to 2.90%. This marked the fifth 25bps rate cut since the ECB commenced its easing cycle in June of last year. Today’s decision by the ECB to cut rates was unanimous.

The first meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) for 2025 saw the central bank leave policy on hold. The target range for the Fed funds rate was maintained at 4.25-4.50%. The decision by the FOMC to leave rates unchanged was unanimous and very much in line with market expectations.

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2024 ....

Growth in Ireland’s key trading partners uneven, geopolitical risks to the fore. Irish economy expected to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years. Households remain cautious in spending patterns. US dollar dominance tested by macro trends.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices...