Economic Analysis

7 August

10 - 14 August

Economic analysis subscription

The manu. PMI eased back to 54.9 in June, amid sustained gains in output, new orders and stock building. Input prices rose at a slower pace, while output price inflation accelerated Traditional industrial production fell by 3.1% in the 3 mths to May, and it was 8.7% lower YoY.

Economic picture has been robust in the face of geopolitical shocks.

De-escalation of Middle East War has driven relief rally for markets. 

US economy continues to outperform, with Eurozone and UK dented by higher energy prices and political uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) for July saw the central bank leave its key interest rate unchanged. The target range for the Fed funds rate was maintained at 3.50-3.75%, for a fifth consecutive meeting. The July meeting outcome was in line with market expectations. Nine of the twelve voting FOMC members were in favour of the “no-change” decision with three “hawkish” dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari and Logan), preferring a 25bps rate hike. Chair Warsh stated that there was an “active, robust discussion” within the FOMC on the policy outlook.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for July saw the central bank leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. This represents the fifth successive meeting where the central bank has been on hold.

The July meeting of the ECB's Governing Council saw the central bank leave its key interest rates unchanged. The deposit and refi rates were maintained at 2.25% and 2.40%, respectively. This was very much in line with market expectations. The decision to remian on hold was unanimous.

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2025

The Irish residential property market remains defined by tight supply as 2025 draws to a close. However, over the course of the year, there have been some encouraging signs in the supply dynamics, albeit the outlook remains challenging. 

This Budget is set against an uncertain economic backdrop so far this year. GDP growth was robust in the early part of the year but has since moderated. The Chancellor had committed to not raising taxes materially further following last year’s hikes to national insurance (NI) on employer contributions, which among other measures raised £40bn. While the tax rises are largely to fill the hole in the fiscal rules, there are also net spending increases in the budget.